Nov 5 US-China Policy Brief: Nasdaq Enters Correction as US Stocks Plunge, PBOC Scales Back Repo Rollover, Cook Hearing Moved to Dec 14

US Policy

US stocks plunge Nov 5: Nasdaq enters correction, semiconductor index falls 12.25% (confirmed close)

The Dow fell 1,833.06 points (-3.44%) to 51,523.06; the S&P 500 dropped 4.36% to 7,353.73, its worst day since April 2025; the Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24,315.00, down 11.9% from its Oct 6 record close of 27,599.89 and in technical correction territory for the second time this year; the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.36% to 26,629.81; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25% to 9,011.14; the Russell 2000 fell 4.45%; the VIX surged 69.66% to 28.18. S&P 500 companies shed $2.9 trillion in market value and Nasdaq companies $2.5 trillion in a single session — both records. Two drivers: concern that Democratic midterm wins will bring tighter regulation of AI data centers, and weak Qualcomm handset-chip sales deepening the memory sell-off. The session erased all of Wednesday's gains (the Dow had risen 1,569.40 points). Brent crude rose about $3.67 on reports of tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz, WTI settled at $90.79 (+3.03%), and gold closed at $4,098.90 (+0.64%).

Lisa Cook investigation committee hearing moved to Dec 14 (confirmed)

CNBC reported on the evening of Nov 4, citing a White House official, that the committee investigating Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has moved its planned closed White House hearing from Thursday, Nov 5, to Monday, Dec 14, at Cook's request; Reuters, citing the New York Times, also confirmed the Dec 14 date. Cook's lawyer Abbe Lowell had told the White House that Cook was attending financial and monetary policy meetings in Europe on Nov 5 and could not appear until after the Fed's Dec 8-9 policy meeting. Committee member Kevin Hassett said Cook's lawyers had agreed to a December date, though Cook's own attendance is not confirmed. Cook remains listed as a governor on the Federal Reserve's official website; the postponement changes the calendar, not the board's composition.

Fed hike odds, 36th tracking round: two officials back gradual hikes on the same day, December odds near 70%-83% (confirmed)

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, speaking in Zurich, reiterated that monetary policy needs to move to a restrictive stance to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner, favoring smaller, more frequent rate adjustments; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, speaking in Charlotte, said inflation is "too high" and holding rather than easing, echoing the gradual-hike path. Both were the hawkish dissenters at the Oct 28 decision, voting with Cook for a 25bp increase. Market pricing: CME FedWatch put a December hike at about 83% (Morningstar, Nov 5, 10:02 ET); Reuters put it near 70%, down from over 80% on Wednesday; Polymarket at 77.5%. The tracking line runs from a 43% October-hike probability on Sep 28 to about 79%-82% for December on Nov 4 and roughly 70%-83% now — the range across sources has widened. Next: nonfarm payrolls on Nov 6 (consensus around 65,000 new jobs, unemployment 4.2%) and the Dec 8-9 FOMC meeting with new economic projections.

OpenAI publishes data-center "Community Compact" amid local backlash (released Nov 5)

OpenAI published a "National Community Compact" and a "Compute Campus Policy Blueprint," pledging to fully cover the power and infrastructure costs of its data centers, not to ask public officials to sign non-disclosure agreements, and to disclose each site's water and power use and construction plans, while calling on states and Congress to set industry-wide rules. Context: in the Nov 3 midterm elections, 40 of 41 local ballot measures across 10 states backed restrictions on data centers or rejected development incentives (CNBC tally). "Community permission" is becoming a constraint on AI infrastructure alongside compute supply itself — and it echoed through the day's AI sell-off.

Jobs preview: October payrolls due Nov 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET (pending)

Forecasters expect about 65,000 new jobs with unemployment steady at 4.2% (Bloomberg survey) — the most important employment reading before the Dec 8-9 meeting. October CPI follows on Nov 10.

China Policy

PBOC scales back 3-month buyback reverse repos on Nov 5: net drain of RMB 200 billion (released)

The People's Bank of China conducted RMB 300 billion of 3-month (91-day) buyback reverse repos on Nov 5, maturing Feb 4, 2027; with RMB 500 billion maturing in November, the operation is a net reduction of RMB 200 billion, versus a RMB 200 billion net increase in October. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, said liquidity has been easing quickly and a modest "withdrawal" helps steady expectations and stop the market from treating the policy-rate anchor switch as a rate cut. Data: the overnight DR001 averaged 1.28% in October, down 10bp from 1.38% in September; DR001 printed 1.2591% on Nov 4, its lowest in nearly four months, and about 1.26% on Nov 5. The overnight reverse repo rate of 1.25% has been the main policy rate since Nov 2, with daily operations.

Third batch of market-stabilization swap facility lands: 26 brokerages confirmed (confirmed)

The third operation of the Securities, Fund and Insurance Companies Swap Facility (SFISF) landed, with 26 brokerages confirmed as winning bidders. For reference: the Nov 3 operation was RMB 100 billion at a 10bp fee with 31 institutions applying for over RMB 100 billion; the stock buyback relending rate was cut to 1% from Nov 4, with banks applying for over RMB 200 billion in quotas.

MOFCOM: anti-dumping and countervailing duties on US n-propanol extended for five years from Nov 6 (released)

The Ministry of Commerce will continue imposing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on n-propanol imported from the United States for five years starting Nov 6, 2026 — the day's only new trade-remedy item in the US-China channel.

Trade negotiator Li Chenggang meets KKR co-CEO (confirmed)

On Nov 4, Li Chenggang, China's international trade representative (minister level) and vice minister of commerce, met with Joseph Bae, co-CEO of US investment firm KKR, to discuss US-China economic and trade relations and KKR's development in China.

SASAC "AI Plus" action deployment meeting (market report, official release pending verification)

Market recaps on Nov 5 reported that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a deployment meeting on its "AI Plus" special action, stressing investment guidance, larger effective investment, coordination between computing power and electricity, and better data governance. No SASAC release had appeared by publication time; this item is carried on the market-report basis pending official confirmation.

Home-purchase subsidy and second capital-injection bond: no new official totals this round

No nationwide official totals for the home-purchase interest subsidy have been released; the second tranche of RMB 150 billion capital-injection special bonds is scheduled for Nov 18.

US Stock Watchlist

Micron (MU): down 17.46%, analyst targets still point to more than double

Micron closed Nov 5 at $656.39 (-17.46%), down 33.24% over five sessions. Fundamentals and price are diverging: Counterpoint Research put third-quarter global DRAM revenue near $200 billion, up 369% year on year — nearly five times the year-ago level — driven by prices rather than volume; Samsung held the top share, while Micron's DRAM share fell to 21% from 26% a year earlier. Micron also suspended a $4.5 billion Taiwan plant project amid a labor dispute. Analyst targets: TipRanks consensus about $1,621.67 (Strong Buy, 28 Buys and 1 Hold), implying roughly 104% upside; MarketBeat consensus about $1,407.88 (Moderate Buy), implying about 114.7% upside. Risk note: memory prices can reverse; data-center regulation and the durability of AI demand are the core disagreements; a five-day drop above 33% shows extreme volatility.

SanDisk (SNDK): down 22.26%, target still points to about 101% upside

SanDisk closed Nov 5 at $806.43 (-22.26%), down 42.59% over five sessions though still up 239.72% year to date. The company is heavily exposed to NAND flash, used across smartphones, computers and cloud storage. Analyst targets: TipRanks consensus about $2,080.59 (15 Buys, 3 Holds), implying roughly 101% upside; P/E near 8.0x (Finnhub figures). Risk note: NAND pricing tracks smartphone demand, and Qualcomm's 26% handset-sales decline is a warning sign; a five-day drop above 42% means violent short-term swings.

Qualcomm (QCOM): handset-chip sales down 26%, shares fall 9.49%

Qualcomm closed Nov 5 at $156.75 (-9.49%). Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was $10.32 billion, above the $10.12 billion consensus but down 8% year on year; adjusted EPS was $2.17 versus $2.16 expected; handset revenue plunged 26% to $5.14 billion, the report's biggest drag; fiscal first-quarter adjusted EPS guidance is $2.15-$2.35 versus $2.29 expected. Analyst targets: MarketBeat consensus about $199.45 (Hold), implying about 27.2% upside; Nov 5 moves showed sharp disagreement — Baird set $320, Barclays cut to $150 from $180 (Underweight), TD Cowen cut to $185 from $200 (Buy), Rosenblatt cut to $205 from $235 (Buy), and Susquehanna cut to $165 from $185 (Neutral). Risk note: weak phone demand could spread to memory and the wider consumer-electronics chain; the $150-$320 target range itself signals deep disagreement.

SK Hynix (SKHY): down nearly 9.5% in Korea, target points to about 88% upside

SK Hynix fell nearly 9.5% in South Korea on Thursday, with Samsung Electronics down more than 7.5%, as the US memory sell-off spread to Asia. Analyst targets: TipRanks consensus about $268.50 (all 9 analysts Buy, Strong Buy), implying about 88% upside. Separately, delayed US export-license approvals for equipment to expand in China are a new operational constraint. Risk note: export-license delays directly threaten near-term expansion, on top of memory-cycle and geopolitical uncertainty.

This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Byline: AISTIM