AISTIM / POLICY RESEARCH
Exclusive insights and research on US–China policy, trade, technology and industry.
China's October CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year; core CPI hit its highest since March 2024. The China-Canada dialogue resumes Nov 9 after eight years. Stephen Miller takes over as White House chief of staff Nov 9. US October CPI lands Nov 10, with a December Fed hike priced near 80%.
Read article →On Nov 6, He Lifeng held a video call with Bessent and Greer, with Beijing lodging solemn concern over US restrictions. Trump named Stephen Miller chief of staff, effective Nov 9. Markets price a roughly 79% chance of a December Fed hike. Berkshire's Q3 operating profit was $12.71 billion.
Read article →US October payrolls jumped 165,000, far above forecasts, lifting December hike odds to ~77%–78%; Democrats were confirmed to have won both chambers of Congress; China's State Council moved to strengthen market-stabilization mechanisms; US stocks rebounded while A-shares fell; US-stock watch: Nvidia, TSMC and Broadcom.
Read article →On Nov 5 the PBOC scaled back its 3-month repo rollover by RMB 200 billion; Fed officials backed gradual hikes with December odds near 70%-83%; US stocks plunged, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% into correction and chip stocks sank 12.25%; US stocks to watch are Micron, SanDisk, Qualcomm and SK Hynix.
Read article →On Nov 4 the PBOC cut its stock buyback relending rate to 1% and raised the FX reserve ratio to 6% from Nov 15; Democrats won both chambers of Congress, December Fed hike odds held near 80%, and US stocks to watch are Microsoft, Broadcom and Nvidia.
Read article →China's third swap operation lands at 100 billion yuan at 10bp; overnight repos total 621 billion yuan; the NDRC unveils new-growth targets; US midterms yield first calls with House control undecided; December hike odds near 75%; watch AMD, Supermicro and Apple.
Read article →China's capital-market package lands with a November 3 swap operation and a buyback-loan cut to 1%; the overnight repo anchor debuts at 541 billion yuan; US midterms vote November 3; Apple and Palantir beat, AMD reports November 3.
Read article →China's 1.25% overnight repo rate becomes the main policy rate on Nov 2; a new VAT withholding regime for individuals takes effect Nov 1; US midterms vote Nov 3 with polls and prediction markets favoring Democrats in the House; watchlist: Apple, Palantir and AMD report earnings this week.
Read article →The PBOC's 1.25% overnight repo rate becomes the main policy rate from Nov 2; China issued consumption-infrastructure guidance and tightened trust rules; the US midterms vote Nov 3 with Democrats leading the generic ballot; watchlist: Apple, JPMorgan, CME Group, Netflix.
Read article →The PBOC switches its policy anchor to the overnight repo at 1.25% from November 2; the BOJ holds at 1.25% and declares underlying inflation at its 2% target for the first time; US Q3 labor costs rise 0.8% as Fed officials talk up December hikes; watchlist: ExxonMobil, Chevron, ServiceNow, BP.
Read article →China's Fifth Plenary communique was released on October 29, mortgage-subsidy first-month data showed second-hand home sales recovering while new-home sales stayed weak, US Q3 GDP grew 3.4% with September PCE at 3.6%, and the FCC voted to bar Chinese labs from testing US electronics; the US-stock watchlist covers Amazo
Read article →The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote on Oct 28, with Warsh announcing a strategy-only meeting from 2027; China completed its 800 billion yuan policy-tool deployment; Microsoft surged on 48% Azure growth while Alphabet fell on an earnings miss.
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