# China-US Policy Evening Brief: Nov 8 — China CPI Turns Positive, China-Canada Dialogue Resumes, Miller Takes Over as Chief of Staff Source: https://aistim.cn/en/policy/policy-20261109-689f859a Language: en Published: 2026-11-09T01:19:22.257Z Updated: 2026-11-09T01:19:22.257Z Author: AISTIM China's October CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year; core CPI hit its highest since March 2024. The China-Canada dialogue resumes Nov 9 after eight years. Stephen Miller takes over as White House chief of staff Nov 9. US October CPI lands Nov 10, with a December Fed hike priced near 80%. ## I. US Policy ### 1. White House Shake-Up: Miller Takes Over as Chief of Staff on Nov 9; Democrats Say They Will Not Work With Him President Donald Trump announced on Nov 6 that Stephen Miller, his long-time adviser and chief architect of the administration's hard-line immigration policies, will become White House chief of staff starting Monday, Nov 9, replacing Susie Wiles, who resigned on the evening of Nov 5. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on ABC's "This Week" on Nov 8 that Democrats will not work with Miller; Jeffries is likely to become Speaker when Democrats take the House in January. A Reuters post-mortem on the midterms notes that Trump's first major response to the Republican rout was to promote Miller rather than change course; Trump himself said it was "largely true" that the Iran war had cost Republicans because it drove gasoline prices up, but that he would do it again. Separately, Rep. Thomas Massie filed eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, accusing him of waging war on Iran without congressional authorization; Jeffries said the impeachment effort has Democratic support. Sources: USA Today; Reuters; Dispatch Times ### 2. US Military Action Against Iran Escalates; Oil Prices Ease US Central Command said it disabled a St. Kitts-flagged commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it allegedly ignored repeated warnings and tried to leave the area after visiting an Iranian port. The incident followed Trump's confirmation of limited strikes on an Iranian air-defense system on Qeshm Island. WTI crude fell below $91 per barrel as markets weighed the risk of military escalation against the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices remain the key tail risk. Sources: Dispatch Times; Vibiznews ### 3. Fed Watch, Round 37: December Hike Odds Around 77%-80%; October CPI on Nov 10 Is the Last Inflation Read Before the Decision The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov 10. The Bloomberg survey expects headline CPI up 0.3% month-on-month and core up 0.2% (Cleveland Fed nowcast: +0.24% headline, +0.21% core). Because no prices were collected in October 2025 during the government shutdown, BLS will not publish year-on-year rates (September's 3.7% is the last official annual figure). After Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report (+165,000 payrolls), markets price roughly a 77%-80% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Dec 8-9 meeting (LSEG/CME), and Reuters reports investors expect about two more quarter-point increases in total this cycle. About 10 Fed officials speak this week, including Governor Waller on the economic outlook in London on Nov 10. US October PPI follows on Nov 13, expected at +0.4% month-on-month and +6.6% year-on-year; September PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% on the month — the largest monthly gain since March 2022 — leaving the PPI-CPI gap at 2.6 points, the widest since late 2022. Sources: PipTheory; The Retest; TFTC ### 4. Looking Ahead: APEC in Shenzhen, Nov 18-19; Xi-Trump-Putin Meeting Under Discussion Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning has confirmed that talks are under way on a first meeting of Presidents Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, possibly on the sidelines of the APEC leaders summit in Shenzhen on Nov 18-19. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he expects to meet Xi again during APEC. The White House hearing on the Lisa Cook inquiry has been postponed to Dec 14, with no new developments this round. Sources: Zark News; Commercial Times (Taiwan) ## II. China Policy ### 1. October CPI Rises 0.2% Year-on-Year; Core CPI Hits Its Highest Since March 2024 China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on Nov 9 that October CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year, while core CPI excluding food and energy rose 1.2%, widening for a sixth straight month to its highest since March 2024. Food prices fell 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 points; pork, egg and fresh-vegetable prices fell between 7.3% and 16.0%, all narrowing. Energy prices fell 2.4%, with gasoline down 5.5%. Services prices rose 0.8%, and industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 2.0% — gold jewelry up 50.3% and platinum jewelry up 46.1%. Month-on-month, CPI rose 0.2%, slightly above the seasonal norm. October PPI is due at 9:30 a.m. Beijing time on Nov 9, with consensus around +5.2% to +5.4% year-on-year (FXStreet consensus +5.3%), above September's +5.0%, the fastest since June 2022. The September PPI-CPI gap had already widened to 4.1 points; eight industries including coal mining (+35.3%), oil and gas extraction (+24.5%) and non-ferrous smelting (+21.4%) together lifted PPI by about 5.42 points. Analysts warn upstream price rises are squeezing downstream small firms' margins, raising "revenue up, profit flat" risks. Note: The China News Service wire describes October CPI as "turning from a 0.3% decline last month to a 0.2% rise," which conflicts with Xinhua's Oct 14 report that September CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year. The September base follows the NBS release of Oct 14; the October figures (+0.2% headline, +1.2% core) are from the latest release, and the discrepancy will be checked next issue. Sources: China News Service (NBS release, Nov 9); FXStreet; InvestingLive; 21st Century Business Herald ### 2. China-Canada Economic and Financial Strategic Dialogue Resumes Today After Eight Years The second China-Canada Economic and Financial Strategic Dialogue will be held in Canada on Nov 9, co-chaired by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu. The mechanism was launched in 2017 and held its first dialogue in 2018 before stalling; leaders agreed to restart it at their January meeting. China announced its first-ever sovereign bond issuance in Canada, of up to 4 billion yuan. On Nov 4, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and Sidhu co-chaired the first ministerial meeting of the China-Canada Joint Economic and Trade Commission in Beijing, with recent consultations making progress, including extending exemptions under the preliminary joint arrangement, consolidating cooperation in oil, gas and agricultural and aquatic products, and expanding into new materials, advanced manufacturing and clean energy. Sources: Commercial Times (Taiwan); Commercial Radio Hong Kong ### 3. State Council Financial Work Report: Tighter Oversight of RWA Tokenization and a Crypto Regulatory Framework The financial work report delivered by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng to the NPC Standing Committee calls for stronger oversight of real-world-asset (RWA) tokenization and an improved regulatory framework for virtual currencies; the digital yuan's positioning shifts from cash to deposit currency. A Nov 8 analysis by Mankun Law notes these are policy statements in the report, with no specific rule text or effective date yet, so institutions should not change business processes on that basis alone. Businesses involving on-chain asset issuance, trading or settlement will increasingly fall under the financial regulatory framework. Source: Mankun Law **Other items**: No official aggregated update on the home-purchase interest subsidy or the second tranche of capital-injection bonds this round; the foreign-exchange reserve requirement ratio rises from 4% to 6% on Nov 15 (the first hike in nearly five years, freezing about $24 billion); no official readout of the SASAC "AI+" deployment meeting has been found yet. **Looking ahead**: China October trade data on Nov 10; credit and social-financing data on Nov 13; reserve-requirement hike effective Nov 15; second tranche of capital-injection special treasury bonds on Nov 18; APEC summit in Shenzhen, Nov 18-19. ## III. US-Stock Watchlist ### 1. Nvidia (NVDA) — AI Chip Leader; Earnings on Nov 17 **Key data**: Closed Nov 6 at $186.64 (+2.78%), after a 10.7% weekly drop and a 9.26% single-day fall to $181.60 on Nov 5. Q3 results are due after the close on Nov 17, with management guiding to about $108 billion in quarterly revenue; consensus expects EPS of about $2.48-$2.49 on revenue of roughly $108.8-$109 billion. Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes cut his price target to $315 from $420 on Nov 2, keeping a Buy rating; the median analyst target is about $320 and Morningstar fair value is $310. In fiscal Q2 2027 (reported Aug 26), revenue was $96.2 billion (+106%), data-center revenue $89.0 billion (+117%), and EPS was $2.22 versus $2.09 expected. **Why watch**: The report is the decisive test of whether AI-compute valuations can stabilize; the median target sits about 70% above the current price, but analysts have already cut AI-hardware targets across the board after Intel's 28.58% single-day plunge, so guidance matters more than the headline numbers. **Risks**: Questions over the sustainability of AI capex, data-center financing and debt, sharp post-earnings volatility. Targets are analyst opinions, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. ### 2. CoreWeave (CRWV) — AI Compute Leasing; Earnings on Nov 10 **Key data**: Closed Nov 6 at $46.40 (+6.28%), down 43.47% over the past month and 59.35% over six months, with a market cap of about $29.64 billion; 52-week range $49.46-$138.25; EPS of -$2.68. Q3 results are due Nov 10. Reuters reports the company has piled up about $50 billion in debt while expanding data centers; Melius trimmed its CoreWeave target in the same Nov 2 note (the figure was not disclosed in public coverage), keeping a Buy rating. **Why watch**: The earnings report will test whether the order book can support a highly leveraged expansion model and whether AI-leasing cash flows are sustainable. **Risks**: Heavy debt (about $50 billion), ongoing losses, shares down more than 40% in a month. Targets are analyst opinions, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. ### 3. Cisco (CSCO) — Networking Equipment; Earnings on Nov 12 **Key data**: Closed Nov 4 at $103.61; Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal-weight from Overweight on Nov 5 and cut its target to $120 from $135, sending shares down 7.62% to $95.72. Consensus target is about $127.87-$137.50, with a Moderate Buy rating. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $63.3 billion (+12%). Fiscal Q1 2027 results are due Nov 12 (call at 4:30 p.m. ET), with company guidance of $18.0-$18.2 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $1.32-$1.34; Morgan Stanley expects $18.3-$18.4 billion and EPS of $1.36-$1.38, and an AI revenue target raised to $8 billion from $7.5 billion. **Why watch**: Whether AI-infrastructure growth can offset campus-networking softness and margin pressure is the key question; Morgan Stanley argues Cisco has been re-rated to parity with the S&P 500 at about 19x forward earnings, raising the bar for upside. **Risks**: AI sales mix may compress gross margins; hyperscaler pricing pressure. Targets are analyst opinions, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. ### 4. Nebius (NBIS) — AI Cloud Infrastructure; Earnings on Nov 12 **Key data**: Closed Nov 6 at $129.49 (+7.58%), market cap about $31.1 billion. Q3 results are due before the open on Nov 12 (call at 8:00 a.m. ET); consensus expects revenue of about $907 million (+56% quarter-on-quarter) and a loss of about $0.72 per share. Citi analyst Tyler Radke kept a Buy rating but cut his target to $265 from $324; the average analyst target is about $278.05 (range $84-$410). Q2 revenue was $582.3 million (more than 5.5x year-on-year), with the adjusted net loss narrowing 64% to $33.2 million; the company secured a $3.5 billion senior secured credit facility arranged by Citi about two weeks ago. **Why watch**: Progress on ARR toward the $7-$9 billion full-year 2026 target and whether reports of Microsoft tightening oversight of data-center projects involving Nebius affect orders are the two things to watch. **Risks**: Still loss-making, customer concentration and project-execution risk, Microsoft oversight reports. Targets are analyst opinions, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. --- For informational purposes only, not investment advice. By: AISTIM