# Nov 6 China–US Policy Brief: Jobs Beat Lifts December Hike Odds to ~78%; State Council Moves to Stabilize Markets

Source: https://aistim.cn/en/policy/policy-20261107-b269cdd3
Language: en
Published: 2026-11-07T01:13:25.281Z
Updated: 2026-11-07T01:17:02.685Z
Author: AISTIM

US October payrolls jumped 165,000, far above forecasts, lifting December hike odds to ~77%–78%; Democrats were confirmed to have won both chambers of Congress; China's State Council moved to strengthen market-stabilization mechanisms; US stocks rebounded while A-shares fell; US-stock watch: Nvidia, TSMC and Broadcom.

## US Policy

### October Payrolls Smash Forecasts; December Hike Odds Rise to ~77%–78% (Confirmed)

The US Labor Department reported on November 6 that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, far above the Dow Jones consensus of 59,000 and the Reuters poll of 65,000, and well above the 48,000 average monthly gain of the previous 12 months. September was revised sharply up to 60,000 from 29,000, and the prior two months were revised up by a combined 84,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% (expected 4.2%); average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month on month and 3.1% year on year, both above expectations; private payrolls rose 159,000 (expected 64,000). Market reaction: CME FedWatch put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting at 76.8%–78%, up from about 70% before the data. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at about 4.87%–4.89%, the 2-year at about 4.52% and the 30-year at 5.27%; the dollar index rose about 0.62% to roughly 102.22. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with Governor Cook and Cleveland President Hammack favoring a hike. Next data points: October CPI on November 10 and November payrolls on December 4. Analyst views (noted as uncertain): the Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist expects a December hike and another in the first quarter of 2027, while other analysts cited by Reuters say recent equity volatility could make the Fed hesitate.

### Midterms Confirmed: Democrats Win Both Chambers; Trump Faces Divided Government (Confirmed)

Results from the November 3 midterm elections were confirmed over the following days: Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In the Senate they flipped seven Republican-held seats (Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas) and hold at least 54 seats; in the House they have won 222 seats, above the 218 needed for a majority, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled. The new Congress convenes in January 2027, leaving President Trump to face a divided government for the final two years of his term. Market impact (market interpretation, not an official statement): Reuters linked Thursday's selloff in part to investor concern that a Democratic Congress could slow AI data-center construction.

### Fed Personnel: Cook Hearing Pushed to December 14; No New Developments

The hearing of the committee investigating Governor Lisa Cook has been postponed to December 14, as reported in the previous issue; no new developments were found in this round. October CPI on November 10 is the next key data point before the December meeting.

## China Policy

### State Council: Improve Market-Stabilization Mechanisms, Strengthen Inherent Stock Market Stability (Released)

Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on November 6. The meeting called for improving capital-market stabilization mechanisms, strengthening the stock market's inherent stability and promoting its steady, healthy development; accelerating major projects and construction of the "six networks"; supporting companies in expanding equipment upgrades and intangible-asset investment; strengthening coordination between online and offline consumption and between urban and rural areas to keep investment and consumption in a virtuous cycle; and studying next year's economic work to strengthen cross-year policy coordination.

### State Council Report on Financial Work: Moderately Loose Monetary Policy; Huijin to Act as Quasi-Stabilization Fund (Released)

The full text of the State Council's report on financial work was published, calling for continued moderately loose monetary policy, the use of multiple tools to keep liquidity ample, and effective use of monetary-policy tools supporting capital markets — including support for Central Huijin to play a quasi-stabilization-fund role, broadening medium- and long-term funding sources, channels and ways of entering the market, and consolidating market-stabilization mechanisms. It also calls for exploring AI applications in financial management and services and expanding international use of the renminbi. Implementation: on November 2 the People's Bank of China, together with the financial regulator and the securities regulator, held two symposiums on the swap facility and the relending facility for share buybacks and stake increases; on November 6, six brokerages — CICC, Guotai Haitong, CITIC Securities, Galaxy Securities, China Merchants Securities and Orient Securities — completed the third batch of swap-facility operations and made their first stock purchases.

### NDRC Holds Symposium with Private Enterprises on Next Year's Policy Measures (Released)

On November 6, NDRC Chairman Zheng Shanzhen chaired a symposium with private enterprises including Hengyi Group, Yulong Petrochemical, TCL, Twins Group and Power Diamond, seeking views on implementing this year's economic work and studying policy measures for next year. Zheng said most difficulties facing private enterprises are difficulties encountered in the course of development.

### Vice Premier He Lifeng's Beijing Inspection: More Financial Support for AI and Computing-Power Networks (Released)

Vice Premier He Lifeng inspected Beijing on November 4–5, calling for stronger scientific and technological support, better coordination between industry, academia, research and finance, and greater financial support and factor guarantees for AI and computing-power network construction, while balancing development with risk control and orderly expanding investment in new infrastructure. He also called for developing new quality productive forces in line with local conditions and fostering high-end manufacturing and biopharmaceuticals.

### Commerce Ministry Opens Anti-Dumping Probes on Two EU Product Categories; US n-Propanol Duties Extended for Five Years from Today (Released)

On November 6, the Ministry of Commerce opened anti-dumping investigations into imports of para-aramid filament from the EU and ethylidene norbornene from the EU and Japan, with the dumping investigation period running from July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026. Separately, anti-dumping duties on US-origin n-propanol continue to apply for five years from November 6, 2026.

### Shenzhen Stock Exchange Revises ChiNext Index Methodology (Released)

On November 6, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Securities Information Co. published a revised ChiNext index methodology, gradually raising the weight cap for a single constituent to 15%, effective at the regular adjustment on December 14, 2026.

### SASAC Symposium on Local SOE Reform: Advance Reform by Region (Released)

On November 3, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium on further deepening local state-owned enterprise reform, calling for more targeted optimization of local state-sector layout and structure, aligning with local 15th Five-Year Plans under the "three concentrations" principle, guiding SOEs to focus on their core businesses, improving the quality and efficiency of strategic emerging-industry investment, addressing unrelated diversification, multi-layer structures and excessive leverage, and steadily pursuing mergers and restructuring. SASAC plans to advance local SOE reform region by region.

### 2027 Holiday Schedule: Nine-Day Spring Festival Returns (Released)

The 2027 public holiday schedule was released on November 5: the Spring Festival holiday will run from February 5 (New Year's Eve) to February 13, nine days in total, matching 2026 as the longest on record; 2027 will also have the fewest adjusted working days in recent years.

## Markets and Industries

### US Stocks Rebound Unevenly on Friday but Post a Steep Weekly Loss

At Friday's close: the Dow Jones fell 0.46% to 51,285.73, the S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7,376.86, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.09% to 24,579.42, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.35% and the Russell 2000 rose 0.89%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rebounded about 4.2% after Thursday's 12.25% plunge; the VIX fell 9.23% to 25.58; gold was $4,074 (-0.96%) and WTI crude $90.43 (-0.10%). For the week, the Dow fell 0.78%, the S&P 500 2.42% and the Nasdaq 3.31% — the S&P's worst weekly drop since the April 2025 tariff-shock week. Micron rose 5% (after -17% on Thursday), Nvidia rebounded about 2% (after -9.26% to $181.60, wiping out more than $400 billion in market value) and TSMC's ADR rose 6.33% to $375.44 (after -11%).

### A-Shares Fall as Power, Banks and Agriculture Outperform

On November 6 the Shanghai Composite fell 1.10% to 3,649.18, the Shenzhen Component fell 2.57% to 11,175.78, the ChiNext fell 3.96% to 2,465.23 and STAR 50 fell 2.60%. Turnover was 1.66 trillion yuan, down about 460 billion yuan from 2.12 trillion the previous day; 757 stocks rose and 4,739 fell; 32 stocks hit the daily limit up and 15 hit the limit down. Power stocks led gains, banks rallied in the afternoon and agriculture strengthened, while communications and electronics led declines. Solar stocks stayed active, but leading names face weak fundamentals — a reminder of chasing risk.

### TSMC Reportedly Weighs 3D DRAM Production at Nvidia's Request (Press Report; TSMC Has Not Commented)

The Information reported on November 6, citing two people familiar with the matter, that TSMC is drawing up plans to produce 3D DRAM at the request of its largest customer, Nvidia, either by building a new plant or acquiring and converting an existing one. TSMC has not commented, and no timeline or investment figure has been disclosed. Advanced DRAM supply is currently concentrated in Samsung, SK hynix and Micron. TSMC already participates in the AI memory chain through advanced packaging and supplies base dies for SK hynix's HBM4. TSMC's October revenue is due November 10; Bernstein raised its price target to $600 from $554 on November 4 (Outperform).

## US-Stock Watch

### Nvidia (NVDA)

Shares rebounded about 2% on Friday after Thursday's 9.26% drop to $181.60, which erased more than $400 billion in market value. The average analyst price target is about $318.85 (MarketBeat, 54 analysts), with a high of $515 and a low of $210; Melius cut its target to $315 from $420 on November 2. Earnings are due November 17. Key data: last quarter's revenue was $96.22 billion, up 105.9% year on year; a $150 billion buyback plan was announced in September. Risk factors: market concern that a Democratic Congress could slow AI data-center construction, rising rate-hike expectations and elevated volatility into earnings.

### TSMC (TSM)

The ADR closed at $375.44 on Friday (+6.33%) after an 11% drop on Thursday. Bernstein raised its target to $600 from $554 on November 4 (Outperform); the MarketBeat average target is $533.89. Key data: The Information reported it is weighing 3D DRAM production at Nvidia's request (not commented on, no timetable); October revenue is due November 10. Risk factors: the memory push remains at the planning stage, market concern about slower AI data-center buildout, and geopolitical and tariff factors.

### Broadcom (AVGO)

Shares closed at $293.69 on Friday (+0.74%), about 41% below their 52-week high of $495. The average analyst price target is about $526.81 (51 analysts, Strong Buy consensus). Key data: next earnings are expected December 9–10, with guidance for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $34.8 billion (+93% year on year) and AI semiconductor revenue of $21.7 billion (+236% year on year); DA Davidson upgraded the stock to Buy with a $400 target on October 27. Risk factors: market concern about slowing AI capital expenditure, still-elevated valuation and volatility into earnings.

## What to Watch

China's October CPI/PPI on November 9; US October CPI and TSMC's October revenue on November 10; the PBOC's two-percentage-point hike in the FX reserve requirement ratio takes effect November 15; Nvidia earnings on November 17; the second tranche of capital-injection special treasury bonds on November 18; the Fed's December 8–9 meeting; the Cook hearing on December 14.

For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

By AISTIM