# China-US Policy Evening Brief (Oct 26): Fifth Plenary Session opens, PBOC launches bond-market NBFI swap facility, Anthropic files S-1

Source: https://aistim.cn/en/policy/policy-20261027-35b17735
Language: en
Published: 2026-10-27T00:08:50.442Z
Updated: 2026-10-27T00:08:50.442Z
Author: AISTIM

The Fifth Plenary Session opened in Beijing on Oct 26; the PBOC rolled over 700 billion yuan of MLF and launched a bond-market NBFI swap facility; fiscal revenue rose 5.1% in the first three quarters; the Fed meets Oct 27-28 and is expected to hold; Anthropic filed its S-1 for a Nasdaq listing as ANT.

## US policy: Fed meeting this week, midterm sprint, Anthropic S-1 delivered

- **Federal Reserve meets Oct 27-28, a hold is the mainstream expectation (preview)**: In a Reuters poll conducted Oct 16-20, 94 of 100 economists expected rates to stay at 3.75%-4.00% in October, while all 100 expected a hike in December; Polymarket pricing on Oct 26 put a hold in October at 94.2% and a December hike at 75.5%. The decision is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Oct 28, with no Summary of Economic Projections this time. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.00% on Oct 26.
- **Midterms, eight days out: Trump campaigns in Mississippi and offers a $1 million fraud-reporting reward (confirmed)**: President Trump campaigned in Corinth, Mississippi, on Oct 26 for Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, and posted on Truth Social that he will pay $1 million to anyone whose report of voter fraud leads to an arrest or conviction, without saying whether government or personal funds would pay. A Reuters/Ipsos poll closing Oct 26 put his approval at 32%, up one point from a record low, with Democrats leading Republicans 47% to 36% on the generic ballot.
- **Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on Oct 26, seeking a Nasdaq listing (confirmed; last issue's preview delivered)**: The Oct 26 public-filing date tracked last issue is now confirmed. The company applied to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT; the share count and price range are not yet set and the registration is not yet effective. Financials: 2025 revenue of $4.585 billion; first-half 2026 revenue of $16.286 billion, including $11.56 billion in the second quarter alone, up 1,368% year on year, with the company's first quarterly operating profit of $974 million; operating cash flow turned positive at $3.93 billion for the half. The first-half net loss of $80.748 billion includes about $72.4 billion of non-cash fair-value charges on convertible notes and SAFEs. Governance: the seven co-founders hold a Class F share through a Founder LLC carrying a fixed 50.1% of voting power, while a Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a board majority. Market expectations put valuation near $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, with a listing possible in mid-to-late November (press reports; subject to company announcements).

## China policy: Fifth Plenary Session opens, MLF rollover, BNSF launch, fiscal data

- **Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee opened in Beijing on Oct 26 (confirmed)**: The session runs Oct 26-29. Its main agenda is a work report from the Political Bureau to the Central Committee and deliberation of decisions on persistently advancing full and rigorous Party self-governance. The closing communique has not yet been published and will be tracked after the session ends.
- **PBOC conducted a 700 billion yuan MLF operation on Oct 26, a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan (published)**: 900 billion yuan of MLF matures this month, making this the third net withdrawal of the year; however, three-month and six-month outright reverse repos already added a net 400 billion yuan this month, so medium-term liquidity tools still added a net 200 billion yuan in October, the fourth consecutive month of net injection. DR001 has run below 1.30% since Oct 10; analysts see a lower chance of near-term reserve-ratio or rate cuts, with the central bank leaning on outright reverse repos and MLF rollovers for counter-cyclical adjustment.
- **PBOC launched the Bond Market NBFI Swap Facility, BNSF, on Oct 26 (published)**: This delivers on Governor Pan Gongsheng's Oct 19 announcement at the Financial Street Forum. It is aimed at systemically important bank wealth-management subsidiaries and mutual fund managers (or their parent banks and securities parents): in specific scenarios of group liquidity risk and systemic bond-market stress, they may borrow central bank bills from the PBOC for repo financing to buy eligible bonds or fund shares of products facing large redemptions, pledging collateral to the PBOC. Context: bank wealth-management products totaled 33.29 trillion yuan and mutual funds about 37.71 trillion yuan at end-2025. The PBOC stresses the facility rescues the market, not individual institutions: participants must continuously meet prudential requirements and post high-grade collateral, with no bailout illusion.
- **Premier Li Qiang signed a State Council order publishing the Regulations on the Registration and Administration of Public Institutions (published)**: The 6-chapter, 34-article regulations take effect Dec 1, 2026, stressing Party leadership, public-welfare orientation and strict management; institutions may not deviate from their public-service mandates or run businesses in violation of the rules, and eligible cancellations after revocation or merger may use a simplified procedure.
- **Finance ministry first-three-quarter data (published)**: General public budget revenue was 17.23 trillion yuan, up 5.1% year on year; tax revenue was 14.07 trillion yuan, up 6.1%; spending was 21.02 trillion yuan, up 1.0%, with health spending up 7.7% and social security and employment up 5.2%. The fiscal-financial package to boost domestic demand supported more than 28 trillion yuan of new credit in the first three quarters, reaching 8.36 million firms and 147 million residents; new special-bond issuance in January-September was 3,560.8 billion yuan, 81% of the annual pace; the ministry will move quickly to allocate part of the 2027 new local-government debt quota in advance.

## US-stock watchlist (3 names)

1. **NVIDIA (NVDA)**: Closed Oct 26 at $216, up 2.39%, as Anthropic's S-1 filing lifted semiconductors. Analyst targets: Needham reiterated Buy at $300 on Oct 21; MarketBeat consensus was about $321.47 on Oct 19. The next earnings report is scheduled for Nov 18, with consensus EPS of $2.49. Risks: scrutiny of AI capital spending, elevated valuation, and pre-earnings volatility.
2. **Broadcom (AVGO)**: Closed Oct 26 at $329.17, up 2.33%. Analyst targets: Tigress Financial initiated coverage with a Buy and a $600 target on Oct 22; consensus is about $529.10. Fundamentals: fiscal third-quarter revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86% year on year, including $16.7 billion of AI semiconductor revenue; the company plans to report fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results after the close on Dec 9. Risks: concentration in custom AI-chip orders, integration execution, and valuation swings.
3. **Meta (META)**: Closed Oct 26 at $630.56, down 1.88%. The company announced about $35 billion of stock and mandatory convertible preferred issuance ($22.5 billion of common stock through forward sales plus $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred depositary shares) and a planned $60 billion Class C at-the-market program in 2027, roughly $95 billion of AI-infrastructure funding in total; NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom indicated non-binding interest in buying up to $5 billion of the common stock in aggregate. Analyst targets: consensus of 62 analysts is about $844.77 with a median of $850; Mizuho reiterated $950 on Oct 26. Risks: equity dilution, continued capital-spending escalation and scrutiny, and slower-than-expected advertising and AI monetization.

This brief is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Byline: AISTIM