# China-US Policy Evening Brief (Oct 25): State Council on population, informatization 15th Five-Year plan, Fed expected to hold this week

Source: https://aistim.cn/en/policy/policy-20261026-427881c0
Language: en
Published: 2026-10-26T00:09:40.248Z
Updated: 2026-10-26T00:09:40.248Z
Author: AISTIM

China's State Council discussed population policy and a fertility-friendly society; the informatization 15th Five-Year plan targets timely 6G use; the central bank runs a 700 billion yuan MLF operation on Oct 26; the Fed meets Oct 27-28 and is expected to hold; Anthropic's reported S-1 date is Oct 26.

## US policy: Fed meeting this week, midterm sprint, Anthropic timeline corrected

- **Fed rate-hike expectations, round 27: no new official comments during the blackout; markets price about a 90% chance of a hold in October (market pricing, not an official stance)**: The decision is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Oct 28, with no Summary of Economic Projections this time. ING noted that officials including Jefferson, Bowman and Waller have said another hike is possible but not urgent, and a December hike remains the mainstream expectation. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.00% on Oct 23.
- **Midterms, nine days out: Trump votes early, Obama holds his first rally of the cycle (confirmed)**: President Trump voted early on Oct 24 in West Palm Beach, Florida; former President Obama held his first midterm rally of the cycle the same day in Cleveland, Ohio. Election Day is Nov 3.
- **Trump announced in Georgia that Audi will build its first US factory in the state, investing about $4 billion and creating about 4,500 jobs (announced; company confirmation pending)**.
- **Anthropic public S-1 tracking, corrected: IFR's reported plan is a public filing on Oct 26 (press reports, pending EDGAR confirmation)**: This issue corrects last issue's "Oct 23 final window has passed" wording — no filing on Oct 23 does not mean the plan failed; Oct 26 is the key verification date on IFR's timetable, with a roadshow in the week of Nov 9 and an IPO in mid-November. Draft figures: first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion, net loss of $80.7 billion (about $72 billion of it non-cash convertible-note accounting adjustments), Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, and a valuation expectation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.

## China policy: State Council population work, informatization plan, MLF rollover

- **State Council executive meeting, Oct 23: coordinating population and socio-economic development (published)**: The meeting said population is a fundamental condition for socio-economic development, called for better coordination between population, the economy, resources and the environment, and for building a fertility-friendly society with improved policies on marriage, childbirth, childcare and education, plus family-oriented fiscal, social security and housing support, aiming to stabilize the newborn population.
- **Central cyberspace commission issues the national informatization 15th Five-Year plan: timely 6G commercial launch, national blockchain network largely built (published)**: By 2030, China aims for major informatization progress, a largely formed land-sea-air-space integrated network, a fully built new-generation communications network, a timely launch of sixth-generation (6G) commercial services, a largely completed national blockchain network, and faster smart-internet deployment. "Timely" does not mean commercial launch within 2026.
- **Central bank: 700 billion yuan one-year MLF operation on Oct 26, a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan (announced; operation imminent)**: 900 billion yuan of MLF matures this month, making this the third net withdrawal of the year after April and August; however, three-month and six-month outright reverse repos each added a net 200 billion yuan this month, so medium-term liquidity tools still added a net 200 billion yuan in October. Overnight reverse repos on Oct 21-23 were 80, 173 and 258 billion yuan respectively; DR001 closed at 1.2847% and DR007 at 1.3261% on Oct 23.
- **Finance ministry: securities transaction stamp duty of 239.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 65.1% year on year (published)**: Total stamp duty was 412.1 billion yuan, up 31.1%.
- **Two CSRC moves (published)**: On Oct 23 the regulator sought public comment on draft rules for private investment fund-of-funds management, and approved the establishment of Citibank Securities (China) with 1.2 billion yuan of registered capital, bringing the number of wholly foreign-owned brokerages in China to seven.
- **Shanghai index compilation revision takes effect Oct 26 (published)**: A single-sample weight cap of 15% is added, and the removal timing for risk-warning stocks moves to the trading day after the second Friday of the month following the risk-warning announcement.
- **Mortgage interest subsidy and capital-injection bond tracking: no new official aggregate data this round**.

## US-stock watchlist (4 names)

1. **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Reports after the close on Oct 28; consensus EPS is $4.71. The company guided quarterly revenue to $89.85-90.95 billion (about 16-17% growth), analysts model about $90.6 billion, and Azure growth near 45% is the key watch item. Analyst targets: Dan Ives (Yorkville) Outperform $615, Guggenheim Buy $586, BMO Outperform $600 (raised from $515), consensus about $592.15. Risks: scrutiny of AI capital spending, Azure deceleration, elevated valuation and post-earnings volatility.
2. **Alphabet (GOOGL)**: Reports after the close on Oct 28; consensus EPS is $2.94 and consensus revenue is about $112.7 billion. Analyst targets: consensus about $425.04, Citizens JMP Market Outperform $450 (cut from $515), BMO Outperform $480 (raised from $465), KeyCorp Overweight $410 (cut from $435). Risks: balancing cloud growth with AI capital spending, regulatory and antitrust uncertainty, and advertising cyclicality.
3. **Amazon (AMZN)**: Reports on Oct 29; consensus EPS is $1.96 (range $1.72-2.23), with 70 analysts averaging a Buy recommendation and an average target of about $332.47 (MarketBeat consensus about $322.53). Analyst targets: Morgan Stanley Overweight $350 (raised from $335), Yorkville Outperform $300 (new coverage). Key watch items: AWS growth and capital spending. Risks: AWS growth missing expectations, retail margin pressure, and heavy capital spending.
4. **Oracle (ORCL)**: Goldman Sachs cut its target to $206 from $240 on Oct 23 (Buy maintained), Cantor Fitzgerald rates it Overweight at $284, and the consensus is about $248.75; the stock fell about 9.77% over the past 30 days (MarketBeat data). Context: Oracle is among the names seeing target cuts as AI-financing worries spread. Risks: sustainability of debt-funded AI capital spending, cloud growth verification, and an unfinished valuation reset.

This brief is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Byline: AISTIM