# China-US Policy Evening Brief (Oct 24): China special bonds top RMB 3.5 trillion, Fed hike odds fall to 10%, oil at 2022 high

Source: https://aistim.cn/en/policy/policy-20261025-6c3b888c
Language: en
Published: 2026-10-25T00:08:42.871Z
Updated: 2026-10-25T00:08:42.871Z
Author: AISTIM

China issued RMB 3,560.8 billion in new special bonds in the first nine months, an 81% progress rate, and pushed back against the US Treasury's new outbound-investment curbs; markets price only a 10% chance of a Fed hike on October 28, while Brent crude hit $116.72, its highest since June 2022.

## US Policy: October hike odds near 10%, Trump floats moving the press corps, oil surges

- **Fed hike expectations, 26th round of tracking: October hike odds about 10%, December still the base case (market pricing, not an official statement)**: CME FedWatch put the odds of a 25bp hike on October 28 at about 10%, down sharply from over 50% right after the September CPI release; markets broadly expect a hold in October and a hike in December. Goldman Sachs chief US economist David Mericle sees an every-other-meeting pattern: December, then March 2027. A Seeking Alpha preview on October 24 called an October pause a "recalibration," not a pivot to easing. No officials spoke during the blackout; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.00% on October 23.
- **Trump said on October 24 he may move the White House press corps (confirmed)**: Reuters reported that Trump wrote on social media he may relocate the press corps to a "less obnoxious location," while denying plans to demolish the briefing room and restore the Roosevelt-era indoor pool. Context: last month Trump briefly barred CNN, MS NOW and Politico journalists from White House grounds; a judge ordered access restored and the administration is appealing.
- **US Treasury published a new outbound-investment restriction proposal on October 23 (published)**: The proposal expands restrictions on investment in China and seeks public comment; Beijing has objected and reserved the right to respond (see China section).
- **Hormuz tensions lift oil: December Brent settled at $116.72 (+3.14%), WTI at $103.27 (+3.8%), the highest since June 2022 (confirmed)**: Escalating Middle East military tensions and supply worries drove the single-day jump; the 10-year yield climbed back to 5.00%.
- **US stocks closed lower on October 23: Dow -1.23% to 52,215.16, S&P 500 -0.52% to 7,623.68, Nasdaq -0.21% to 25,955.34 (confirmed)**: For the week, the Dow rose 0.4% (a third straight weekly gain) while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.7% (both down two weeks in a row). Energy led sectors at +2.60%; consumer staples fell 1.92% and communication services 1.78%.
- **Anthropic public S-1 tracking: still no match on SEC EDGAR as of October 24, past the "October 23 last window" (verified)**: The company's confidential draft submission on June 1 is confirmed, but no public filing has appeared. Draft figures reported earlier: first-half 2026 revenue $16.3 billion, net loss $80.7 billion (about $72 billion of it a non-cash convertible-note accounting charge), Q3 revenue $16.8 billion, cloud compute commitments of about $450 billion (up to $750 billion under negotiation), and an expected IPO valuation of $1.5-2 trillion.
- **Week ahead**: October 26: China's central bank conducts a RMB 700 billion 1-year MLF operation (a RMB 200 billion net withdrawal); October 27-28: FOMC meeting, decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28 (no dot plot this time); October 29: US PCE data and the FCC meeting; October 30: Exxon Mobil Q3 results; October 31: Yonyou's Q3 report expected, plus 18 banks reporting Q3 results.

## China Policy: Special bonds accelerate, fiscal-financial push for domestic demand, Beijing responds to US investment curbs

- **Finance ministry: RMB 3,560.8 billion in new special bonds issued in the first nine months, 81% progress (published)**: September alone saw RMB 633.9 billion issued, up RMB 214.8 billion year on year; 14 "self-review and self-issue" pilot regions issued RMB 2,708.7 billion, 76% of the total. The ministry will soon front-load part of the 2027 new local-government debt quota so issuance can start early next January.
- **Fiscal-financial policies for domestic demand: over RMB 28 trillion in new credit in the first nine months, reaching 8.36 million firms and 147 million residents (published)**: Interest subsidies for small and micro firms, equipment-upgrade loans, service-sector loans, consumer loans and a special guarantee program for private investment drove the credit; private investment and household consumption each exceeded RMB 2 trillion. After working-capital loans were added to the small-firm subsidy in August, over RMB 1.8 trillion in such loans were issued within two months, reaching 500,000-plus small firms.
- **Commerce ministry: online goods and services retail sales up 4.4% in the first nine months, contributing 45.4% of total retail growth (published)**: Online services retail kept double-digit growth; online farm-produce retail rose 12.6%; value added in information transmission, software and IT services grew 10.4%.
- **Commerce ministry responded on October 24 to the US Treasury's new outbound-investment restriction proposal (published)**: The spokesperson said the proposal discriminatorily expands restrictions on investment in China and toughens them, is a typical case of overstretching national security, runs against the consensus reached by the two heads of state, and that China expresses serious concern, firmly opposes it, will closely follow developments and reserves the right to take corresponding measures.
- **NDRC Order No. 49, the Measures for the Administration of Outbound Investment, published October 22 and effective December 1 (published, details added this issue)**: For the first time, resident individuals are covered as investors; sensitive investments require approval while non-sensitive ones require filing; round-trip investments made through overseas entities must be reported; fines for skipping procedures can reach 10 per mille of the Chinese investment. China's outbound investment stock has reached $3.4 trillion.
- **MIIT and three other departments drafted a notice on auto product innovation design and R&D testing for comment (published)**: The draft would impose rigid rules on misconduct by some automakers; with China's NEV penetration at a record high in 2026, regulation is shifting from verbal reminders to hard rules.
- **Family-oriented fiscal support back in focus (media report, official document wording to be confirmed)**: Caixin-affiliated Yicai reported on October 24 that the State Council wants better family-oriented fiscal and tax measures to stabilize population. Background figures: special individual-income-tax deductions for children's education and infant care cut taxes by RMB 36 billion and RMB 5 billion respectively in 2023; about RMB 100 billion was budgeted for childcare subsidies in 2025 and over RMB 20 billion in kindergarten fee waivers for the autumn 2025 semester; individual income tax reached RMB 1,346.4 billion in the first nine months, up 14.1%.

## US-Stock Watchlist (4 names)

1. **American Express (AXP)**: Q3 revenue hit a record $20.1 billion (+9%), net income $3.7 billion (+28%), diluted EPS $5.42 (+31%) and adjusted EPS $4.68 (+13%); yet shares fell 3.3% to $314.57 on October 23 after the company announced cutting about 5% of its workforce (roughly 3,500 roles) to prepare for wider AI use. Analyst price targets: Morgan Stanley $380 (Equal-Weight), JPMorgan $360 (Overweight), BMO $380 (Outperform), TD Cowen $335 (Hold), UBS $345 (Neutral). Risks: expenses rose 9% to $14.5 billion, and the consumer credit cycle can turn.
2. **Exxon Mobil (XOM)**: Brent at $116.72 is a direct tailwind; UBS raised its target to $199 from $185 on October 19 (Buy), Goldman Sachs $178, Bank of America $181 (Neutral), Morgan Stanley $185 (Overweight). Q2 revenue was $114.53 billion, net income $14.88 billion and operating cash flow $23.56 billion; Q3 results arrive October 30, Guyana's fifth FPSO (Errea Wittu) is due by year-end, and Pioneer integration synergies run about $4 billion a year. Risks: an oil-price reversal, normalizing refining margins and a share price near its 52-week high.
3. **Instacart (Maplebear, CART)**: The Information reported on October 23 that the company hired bankers to review strategic options and held preliminary talks with Uber and DoorDash; against a roughly $12 billion market value, a standard 30%-40% takeover premium implies $16-17 billion. Shares jumped 9.21% to $56.44 on October 23. The analyst consensus is Moderate Buy with an average target of $58.38; Q2 revenue was $1 billion (+14%) with $480 million in free cash flow. Risks: no deal is guaranteed, and antitrust scrutiny could block one.
4. **DoorDash (DASH)**: Q3 results are due after the close on November 4; Q2 revenue was $4.45 billion (+35.6%) and adjusted EBITDA $914 million (+39.5%), but net income attributable to shareholders fell 29.8% to $200 million. Analyst targets: Goldman Sachs $280 (raised October 13), BTIG $225 (Buy), Cantor Fitzgerald $240 (Overweight), Wells Fargo $230 (Equal-Weight); the average target is about $255-260. Shares were about $183.28 on October 23, with a 52-week range of $143.30-269.00 and a P/E near 96-101. Risks: margin pressure, Deliveroo integration costs and a premium valuation; bidding for Instacart would add regulatory risk.

This brief is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Byline: AISTIM